“The era of complexity is over. We have to learn to deal with chaos!” - Richard Seidl
You could be forgiven for thinking that the universe is doing this on purpose to show us up. At the very time when humans are at the peak of their complacency, proud of themselves for having subjugated and controlled everything so beautifully, it shows us where the hammer hangs. Now that we have been able to capture and solve even complex problems, the next level comes: chaos. Uncontrollable viruses, climate collapse and geopolitical crises that we no longer thought possible. Perhaps we are not the crown of creation after all, but simply part of the whole. Whatever the case, we have to learn to deal with chaos. But let’s start at the beginning. Back then, when everything was still simple. Well, maybe not quite simple, but …
Cause. Effect. Turn here. Then that happens. Yes, it used to be that simple. Long before the software industry, but also at the beginning. Engineers, architects and specialists designed, calculated and planned on the drawing board. Structure and hierarchy. And that worked. The great age of automation, optimization, documentation and standardization, which removed the last bit of inefficiency from processes. And we were also very good at this in Central Europe.
Then it became complex. Perhaps the Internet was to blame. Everything began to be networked. Globally around the world to locally within the company. All systems talk to everyone. Hierarchies no longer worked. Turn here … but what happens now? Oh, over there! Monitoring and control only worked on a small scale. Short feedback loops to quickly adapt the plan and react to impacts. Constant reflection on our actions. Sailing on sight on rough seas. Standardizers have been replaced by scrum masters and rituals and there is hardly a company today that has not already adopted an agile framework. This does not always run smoothly, especially when some are still defending the familiar “complicated” solutions. But there’s no resting on your laurels here either, because …
High instability and vulnerability. Fragile connections. Connections are now not only unpredictable, but also impossible to explain in retrospect through reflection. Many things are no longer understandable. Sailing by sight is no longer possible - the fog is too thick. And now?
Good question. We will have no choice but to explore this together. I’m not sure whether our “complicated” and “complex” structures can evolve to handle chaos. We are currently seeing that our political and social structures are coping more poorly than well with pandemics, global crises and climate collapse and are trapped in their own world. Companies are also only transforming themselves into the complex context with a great deal of energy and time.
But we will solve this. Not so much with AI, but with the unconscious competence of humans. I also believe that method frameworks will no longer help us here. Instead, I could imagine us relying more on intuition, flow and empathy. On the present moment and what is needed right now. What some may already define as an agile mindset, away from rituals and process models.
It will definitely be exciting. Maybe even exhausting. But definitely educational. I’m looking forward to it!